can we use nanotechnology to create gasoline from available materials, or to reduce oil's necessity in other areas, such as manufacturing and agriculture?
The "technology will provide" argument needs to be carefully assessed (as opposed to the "market will provide" argument, which I think can be dismissed almost out of hand). I admit I don't know what kinds of amazing things we're going to think up in the future, given enough resources for research and enough time and luck in finding cool techniques and making them scalable. But if I were going to start thinking about this I would appeal to some very broad considerations which can put upper bounds on the rate at which we can consume energy and the manner in which we produce it.
For example, I have a lot of confidence in the law of conservation of energy. All the energy we use on this planet comes from one of two sources: radioactive isotopes in the earth's interior (nuclear fission and geothermal) and solar radiation (everything else, including fossil fuels if you consider how they form -- they're really just distilled biomass). The convenience of geothermal energy is limited by geography; nuclear fission has its own problems, and in any case depends on digging a limited supply of stuff out of the ground. Fossil fuels we've discussed. We might be able to hit a home run if we figure out how to make nuclear fusion work, but barring some amazing breakthroughs fusion-powered cars and tractors are not in the forseeable future. Therefore I think it's a pretty safe bet that the instantaneous rate at which we use energy in the future will be limited by the flux of solar radiation on the earth's surface.
This consideration will affect any use of nanotech to make oil substitutes, or just convenient liquid fuel, from any known materials on earth. Nanotech can convert energy from one form to another, but it can't create it. Even if the process of making substitute oil, say from biomass, is astoundingly efficient, say 10%, the energy will still ultimately come from the sun. The same goes for biodiesel and for attempts to produce hydrogen from bacteria (currently being researched at Berkeley Lab).
This article about a recent meeting at LBNL corroborates most of the above, and might give you some idea about the challenges we'll have to overcome. Let me know if you find it helpful or want to discuss.
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branchandroot
conservation of energy
Date: 5 September 2005 02:08 (UTC)The "technology will provide" argument needs to be carefully assessed (as opposed to the "market will provide" argument, which I think can be dismissed almost out of hand). I admit I don't know what kinds of amazing things we're going to think up in the future, given enough resources for research and enough time and luck in finding cool techniques and making them scalable. But if I were going to start thinking about this I would appeal to some very broad considerations which can put upper bounds on the rate at which we can consume energy and the manner in which we produce it.
For example, I have a lot of confidence in the law of conservation of energy. All the energy we use on this planet comes from one of two sources: radioactive isotopes in the earth's interior (nuclear fission and geothermal) and solar radiation (everything else, including fossil fuels if you consider how they form -- they're really just distilled biomass). The convenience of geothermal energy is limited by geography; nuclear fission has its own problems, and in any case depends on digging a limited supply of stuff out of the ground. Fossil fuels we've discussed. We might be able to hit a home run if we figure out how to make nuclear fusion work, but barring some amazing breakthroughs fusion-powered cars and tractors are not in the forseeable future. Therefore I think it's a pretty safe bet that the instantaneous rate at which we use energy in the future will be limited by the flux of solar radiation on the earth's surface.
This consideration will affect any use of nanotech to make oil substitutes, or just convenient liquid fuel, from any known materials on earth. Nanotech can convert energy from one form to another, but it can't create it. Even if the process of making substitute oil, say from biomass, is astoundingly efficient, say 10%, the energy will still ultimately come from the sun. The same goes for biodiesel and for attempts to produce hydrogen from bacteria (currently being researched at Berkeley Lab).
This article about a recent meeting at LBNL corroborates most of the above, and might give you some idea about the challenges we'll have to overcome. Let me know if you find it helpful or want to discuss.