jrtom: (Default)
http://arstechnica.com/articles/culture/dodgy-digits-behind-the-war-on-piracy.ars

This attempt to track down the source of a couple of oft-quoted numbers (750K jobs, $200-250 billion) is an interesting look at the provenance of numbers like that, and how they can morph as they're passed from source to source.
jrtom: (Default)
So apparently I missed this story first time around: it appears that US veterans are committing suicide at about 2x the rate of the rest of the population:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/13/earlyshow/main3494261.shtml

to the point where there have been more suicides than combat fatalities--possibly several times more. It's been publicized again recently:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/06/cbsnews_investigates/main4076241.shtml

Now, as a scientist of sorts, I recognize that there are several unanswered questions:

(1) How has the US veteran suicide rate changed over time? (Stats prior to our invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan would be useful here, as a point of departure. Stats before and after the Gulf War, Viet Nam War, would also be handy.)
(2) How many of those veterans that are suiciding are doing so after having had a tour in Iraq or Afghanistan?
(3) How many are doing so shortly before being (re)sent to Iraq or Afghanistan?

A brief search hasn't turned up any studies, or data. If anyone has any (pointers to) such, I'd really like to see it.

However, as a political activist of sorts, even without answers to those questions...I'd really like to see one of the Democratic candidates bring up the fact that N times as many US service members have committed suicide since 2003 as have died in combat: that is, the true casualty rate appears to be considerably higher than the combat death stats suggest.

(This leaves out the injury rates here: part of the reason why there have been fewer deaths than in some previous conflicts is simply that medical technology is now capable of saving some of those that would have died. For an SFnal take on this, see http://www.bestsf.net/reviews/dozois5.html for a reference to the short story "The Million-Dollar Wound".

...and now I'm wondering how many US veteran _suicide attempts_ there have been, and how _that's_ changed...although I'd also bet that the 'success rate' of veteran suicides is considerably higher.)
jrtom: (Default)
http://science.slashdot.org/science/07/06/12/2213233.shtml

I haven't read the paper yet...but I suspect that this is one of those cases in which the process of building a model obscures the fact that the inputs and objective functions are not well-defined.

Nevertheless I plan on checking this out at some point.
jrtom: (Default)
http://www.stats.org/

Not sure it's all that, but an interesting idea nonetheless.

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